Implications For Seismic Hazard Research Articles

A strike slip fault dynamic and seismic hazard implications on the future big event: insights from the Mw 5.5 Rukwa earthquake of 21 March 2019

A strike slip fault dynamic and seismic hazard implications on the future big event: insights from the Mw 5.5 Rukwa earthquake of 21 March 2019

Seismotectonics of the San Andreas Fault System in the San Gorgonio Pass region: A synthesis

In the San Gorgonio Pass region of Southern California, USA, the San Andreas fault exhibits greater geometric complexity than anywhere else along its length, with multiple nonparallel fault strands that branch and join both laterally and at depth (Fig. 1). These structures are associated with regional contraction within the San Gorgonio Pass region due to the nearby Big Bend of the San Andreas fault. The complexity of past and present faulting in this region has led Jon Matti, Doug Yule, and others to call this the “San Gorgonio knot.” Due to its complexity, this part of the San Andreas fault system may serve as both a barrier and an initiation point for devastating earthquakes. Research to understand and unravel the San Gorgonio knot has important implications for seismic hazard in southern California. The first author of this manuscript, Doug Yule, investigated slip rates and earthquake records in this enigmatic region from the mid-1990s until his death in 2022 (Fig. 2). During the 2010s, many researchers, including co-authors Cooke and Oglesby, were inspired by Doug Yule’s work in this area. Together, the three authors coordinated a five-year research effort to investigate active faulting within the San Gorgonio Pass, involving many researchers in the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) community with support from SCEC, their various organizations, and institutions. Many of the results of this effort are compiled in this Geosphere thematic issue, with 11 papers that span earthquake geology, geomorphology, geodesy, potential field geophysics, crustal deformation models, and dynamic rupture models. Here, we highlight findings from these studies and honor the role that Doug played in bringing together earthquake scientists from a variety of disciplines to better understand the rupture potential through the complex faults of the San Gorgonio Pass. Much of this science can be organized around a few key questions.

Seismic Hazard Implications in and Around the Yedisu Seismic Gap (Eastern Türkiye) Based on Coulomb Stress Changes, b-Values, and S-wave Velocity

Seismic Hazard Implications in and Around the Yedisu Seismic Gap (Eastern Türkiye) Based on Coulomb Stress Changes, b-Values, and S-wave Velocity

Seismic swarms as intermittent quasi-static ruptures driven by pore pressure variations due to the water reservoir impoundment

Seismic swarms are characterized as time-space clustered sequences of earthquakes without a dominating strong event. The occurrence of earthquake swarms has been observed in various environments and found out to be closely related to underground migration of fluids. Mechanical interactions between fluid-conduit properties of fault and rupture determine the spatio-temporal complexity of rupturing process and earthquake occurrence. Often, seismic swarms are triggered by Water Reservoir Impoundment (WRI). Although many studies have investigated the relationship between the pore pressure changes due to WRI and observed seismicity, hydromechanical models that explain the observed processes are limited. Here, we investigate the role of hydromechanical interactions in triggering earthquake swarms in WRI conditions, using data from the Song Tranh 2 Reservoir in Vietnam as an example. We found that seismic swarms evolve due to stress redistribution and subsequent induced fluid flow. Swarm sequences form interconnected rupture increments and their aggregated behaviour is similar to a single large earthquake that ruptures the fault segment at once. The evolution of friction with the mean slip retrieved from the swarm earthquakes exhibits both, slip weakening and strengthening stages, resembling linear slip-weakening friction. The effective slip over which the weakening is completed, is modulated by the pore pressure diffusion. These results provide insights into the physical mechanisms of seismic swarms and have implications for seismic hazard.

Earthquake swarm near Great Sand Dunes, Colorado, investigated with temportary seismic network and machine learning sesmic phase analysis

In November of 2018, residents living in the Zapata Subdivision south of Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve reported hearing and feeling multiple small earthquakes. Reports of additional earthquakes continued, escalating in late February of 2019, when the USGS recorded over 27 magnitude 0.9 and larger earthquakes over a two-day period. Subdivision residents became concerned that these could be foreshocks to a future, larger earthquake. To further study these earthquakes, we installed a temporary network of seismometers in the area during 2019 and used a convolution neural network seismic phase picker along with the GLASS3 associator to detect over 700 earthquakes in a 3.5-month period during the earthquake swarm. The earthquakes were located using a regional velocity model and a double-difference algorithm. The Northern Sangre de Cristo Fault (NSCF) cuts through the subdivision at the base of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Based on geologic evidence, it is one of the most active faults in Colorado but has been nearly aseismic historically. Initially, minor movement on the NSCF was suspected of being the geologic source of the earthquakes. However, nearly all recorded epicenters lie east of the trace of west-dipping fault and are not located on it. Instead, the earthquake epicenters define a narrow, linear, east-west-trending zone that projects eastward across the entire Northern Sangre de Cristo Range and into the headwaters of the Huerfano River Valley. We propose several possible geologic sources for the earthquakes including several mapped, but unnamed faults. Available evidence for any particular source in this geologically complex area is not conclusive. Additional geologic and geophysical investigations are needed to better understand the geology of the earthquake swarm and its implications for seismic hazards.

Clustering Analysis of Seismicity in the Anatolian Region with Implications for Seismic Hazard.

The Anatolian region is one of the most seismically active tectonic settings in the world. Here, we perform a clustering analysis of Turkish seismicity using an updated version of the Turkish Homogenized Earthquake Catalogue (TURHEC), which contains the recent developments of the still ongoing Kahramanmaraş seismic sequence. We show that some statistical properties of seismic activity are related to the regional seismogenic potential. Mapping the local and global coefficients of variation of inter-event times of crustal seismicity which occurred during the last three decades, we find that territories prone to major seismic events during the last century usually host globally clustered and locally Poissonian seismic activity. We suggest that regions with seismicity associated with higher values of the global coefficient of variation of inter-event times, CV, are likely to be more prone to hosting large earthquakes in the near future than other regions characterized by lower values, if their largest seismic events have the same magnitude. If our hypothesis is confirmed, clustering properties should be considered as a possible additional information source for the assessment of seismic hazard. We also find positive correlations between global clustering properties, the maximum magnitude and the seismic rate, while the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law is weakly correlated with them. Finally, we identify possible changes in such parameters before and during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş seismic sequence.

Holocene slip rates and their implications for seismic hazard along the Himalayan Frontal Thrust in western Himalayan Nahan salient

AbstractProtracted interseismic locking of the low‐angle décollement of the Himalaya causes strain accumulation and results in growing slip deficit with time. Unlocking the frontal splay of the décollement during high‐magnitude earthquakes (Mw ≥6.5) may cause surface ruptures along the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT). According to Paleoseismic investigations and observations on undeformed fluvial strath surfaces, the HFT in Nahan Salient has not experienced coseismic slip at least for the last six to seven centuries. Our new observations and chronological assessments on folded and faulted fluvial strath surfaces on the hanging wall of the HFT indicates a maximum slip rate of 10.4 ± 0.8–12.2 ± 0.8 mm/a (averaged over the last 7–8 ka). Seismic quiescence of 600–700 a results in a ~6.2–8.5 m slip deficit on the HFT which could trigger a Mw ≥7.7 earthquake. Our findings underline an enormous seismic risk prevailing in the Nahan area.

Time–Space Evolution of the Groningen Gas Field in Terms ofb-Value: Insights and Implications for Seismic Hazard

AbstractThe Groningen gas field, located in the northeast of The Netherlands, is the Europe’s largest onshore gas field. It was discovered in 1959 and production started in 1963: Continuous production leads to reservoir compaction and subsidence, gradually loading preexisting fault and induced seismicity that started about 30 yr into the production. The seismic hazard and risk related to the induced seismicity is determined not only for the rate of activity, but it is also equally influenced by the relative size distribution of the seismicity—the b-value. I reanalyze the spatial and temporal evolution of the b-value in the field using an alternative approach to overcome magnitude in completeness heterogeneity, and link it to the evolution of fault loading and subsidence. Spatial variations of b-values are found to vary between 0.61 and 1.3, with the lowest observed values observed in the location of the 2012 M 3.6 Huizinge earthquake. In the last 10 yr, the mapped b-values are more homogeneous throughout the field. The spatial and temporal evolution of the b-value in the field in this study is shown to be quite complex, and systematically linked it to the evolution of fault loading, absolute compaction, and the rate of compaction—an important finding that offers new insights into hazard reduction and mitigation strategies of extraction relation-induced seismicity. Compaction rates below 2 mm/yr are not correlated to seismicity above M 2.0 in the history of the field, suggesting that low-volume production may be safer than that previously assumed.

Can Plate Bending Explain the Observed Faster Landward Motion of Lateral Regions of the Subduction Zone After Major Megathrust Earthquakes?

AbstractGreater landward velocities were recorded after six megathrust earthquakes in subduction zone regions adjacent to the ruptured portion. Previous explanations invoked either increased slip deficit accumulation or plate bending during postseismic relaxation, with different implications for seismic hazard. We investigate whether bending can be expected to reproduce this observed enhanced landward motion (ELM). We use 3D quasi‐dynamic finite element models with periodic earthquakes. We find that afterslip downdip of the brittle megathrust exclusively produces enhanced trenchward surface motion in the overriding plate. Viscous relaxation produces ELM when a depth limit is imposed on afterslip. This landward motion results primarily from in‐plane elastic bending of the overriding plate due to trenchward viscous flow in the mantle wedge near the rupture. Modeled ELM is, however, incompatible with the observations, which are an order of magnitude greater and last longer after the earthquake. This conclusion does not significantly change when varying mantle viscosity, plate elasticity, maximum afterslip depth, earthquake size, megathrust locking outside of the rupture, or nature and location of relevant model boundaries. The observed ELM consequently appears to reflect faster slip deficit accumulation, implying a greater seismic hazard in lateral segments of the subduction zone.

Earthquake Cycle Deformation Associated With the 2021 MW 7.4 Maduo (Eastern Tibet) Earthquake: An Intrablock Rupture Event on a Slow‐Slipping Fault From Sentinel‐1 InSAR and Teleseismic Data

AbstractIn the continents, the importance of earthquakes that occur away from major block‐bounding faults is still debated. The 21 May 2021 MW ∼ 7.4 Maduo earthquake occurred on a secondary fault away from previously‐identified major block boundaries. Here we use 7 years of Sentinel‐1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series (between October 2014 and November 2021) to determine the distribution of coseismic slip and early postseismic afterslip following the Maduo earthquake, and the preceding interseismic strain accumulation. We devised a 13‐segment 3‐D fault geometry constrained by the SAR range offsets and the distribution of relocated aftershocks and used a Bayesian method incorporating von Karman regularization to solve for coseismic slip and afterslip models. We also used teleseismic waveforms as a standalone inversion to show the rupture evolution in space and time during the earthquake, finding that it propagates bilaterally with three notable rupture episodes. Our preferred coseismic self‐similar slip model shows a moderate shallow slip deficit, with the majority of moment release occurring in the depth interval of 1–10 km. The coseismic slip deficit is taken up in part by afterslip at shallow (<4 km) depths that grows linearly with time during the first ∼6 months, and at >10 km depths where afterslip grows logarithmically with time. We suggest that this heterogeneity is likely controlled by spatial variations in fault friction related to lithology. We discuss the implications for seismic hazard away from major tectonic block boundaries in light of our observations of the earthquake cycle on this intrablock fault.

Tectonic geomorphology-based modeling reveals dominance of transpression in Taxila and the contiguous region in Pakistan: implications for seismic hazards

Tectonic geomorphology-based modeling reveals dominance of transpression in Taxila and the contiguous region in Pakistan: implications for seismic hazards

Late Pleistocene Slip Rate and 3D Geometry of the Mid-Channel Blind Thrust, Santa Barbara Channel, California, and Their Implications for Earthquake Hazards

ABSTRACTThe Mid-Channel fault is an active blind thrust overlain by a south-vergent anticline in the Santa Barbara channel of southern California. We use high-quality industry seismic reflection data to characterize the 3D geometry of the Mid-Channel fault, and define its lateral extent and interactions with other structures in the region. We use a detailed chronostratigraphic sequence of nine Pleistocene horizons ranging in age from 120 ka to 1.05 Ma to interpret the geometry and deformational history of the Mid-Channel anticline and blind thrust. These precisely dated horizons provide unique insights on the Pleistocene activity of the Mid-Channel fault because of the nearly complete preservation of sediment on the backlimb of the fold. Using a new method of relating structural relief of these horizons to slip on the underlying Mid-Channel fault, we calculate the faults late Pleistocene slip rate. Results indicate that the structure became active between 790 and 710 ka in the eastern part of the Channel and subsequently propagated west along strike. In the east, where the overlying anticline preserves a complete section of syntectonic growth strata, the Mid-Channel fault has a dip-slip rate of 1.8 mm/yr with a range of 1.6–2.1 mm/yr. Based on a map of total displacement, we infer that the maximum dip-slip rate on the Mid-Channel fault along strike is 2.1 ± 0.2 mm/yr, suggesting that it may accommodate about one-third of the observed geodetic contraction across the basin. We explore alternative ways that the fault may extend to depth and interact with surrounding structures, and consider the seismic hazard implications of these scenarios, including estimates of potential earthquake rupture areas, magnitudes, and average recurrence intervals.

The geometry of active shortening in the northwest Himalayas and the implications for seismic hazard

SUMMARYLarge thrust faults accommodate the convergence between India and Tibet along the southern margin of the Himalaya and have a history of producing great earthquakes that cause widespread damage. Along most parts of the Himalaya, there is geomorphological evidence that these thrusts can rupture to the surface in Mw >8 earthquakes. However, in the Himalayan state of Jammu & Kashmir (NW India), the thrust faults are blind and large-scale folding is the only expression of active deformation at the surface, making it difficult to assess the seismic hazard in this region. In this paper, we use field, satellite, and seismological observations to determine the fault geometry in Jammu & Kashmir. We then estimate the ground motions from potential earthquakes in the region using models of the seismic wavefield that would be generated if the thrust fault beneath Jammu & Kashmir were to rupture. We find that earthquakes that rupture the buried, shallow part of the locked Main Himalayan Thrust could generate peak ground velocities that are >3 times larger than earthquakes of the same magnitude on its deeper portions. We also model the ground motions that would result from the thrust fault geometries representative of different parts of the Himalayan arc. These simulations show that even seemingly minor variations in the shallow fault geometry can lead to large differences in the expected ground motions, highlighting the importance of accurately determining the shallow geometry of thrust faults along the margins of mountain ranges for estimating seismic hazard.

Intermittent lab earthquakes in dynamically weakening fault gouge.

Large and destructive earthquakes on mature faults in Earth's crust occur as slip in a layer of a fine granular material-fault gouge-produced by comminution during sliding1,2. A range of insights into the frictional resistance of faults-one of the main factors controlling earthquake nucleation, dynamic propagation and arrest, and hence the destructive ground shaking of earthquakes2,3-has been obtained in experiments with spatially uniform slip imposed in small samples2,4-21. However, how various features of gouge friction combine to determine spontaneous progression of earthquakes is difficult to study in the lab owing to substantial challenges with sample sizes and adequate imaging22. Here, using lab experiments, we show that spontaneously propagating dynamic ruptures navigate a fault region with fine rock gouge through complex, intermittent slip processes with dramatic friction evolution. These include repeated arrest of rupture propagation caused by friction strengthening at lower slip rates and dynamic earthquake re-nucleation enabled by pronounced rapid friction weakening at higher slip rates consistent with flash heating8,12,23. The spontaneous repeated weakening and strengthening of friction in fine rock gouge highlights the fundamental dependence of friction on slip rate and associated processes, such as shear heating, localization and delocalization of shear, and dilation and compaction of the shear layer6,7,9-21. Our findings expand experimental support9,11 of the concept that co-seismic weakening may enable earthquake rupture to break through stable fault regions24,25, with substantial implications for seismic hazard.

Towards Automated/Semiautomated Extraction of Faults from Lidar Data

The Pajarito fault system is a complex zone of deformation and a seismically active region nestled within the Rio Grande rift in north-central New Mexico. Numerous laterally discontinuous faults and associated folds and fractures interact in a manner that has important implications for seismic hazards and risk mitigation. Previous efforts have established a foundation for the location of lineaments and structures in the Pajarito fault system; however, ensuring the completeness of the current lineament mapping is required for identifying areas for field validation, evaluating the potential for future seismic activity, and better understanding fault interaction. Assistance with this fault-mapping task via automated or semiautomated techniques as applied to lidar data over a large area of interest is highly desirable. A proof-of-concept processing flow which transforms lidar point-cloud data into a raster of surficial fault candidates is described and illustrated herein. These initial results hold great promise toward achieving our ultimate goal.

Magnitude-Rupture Area Scaling Derived From Global Earthquakes Of Moderate To Large Sizes: Implications For Seismic Hazards In Indonesia

Earthquake size can be estimated using magnitude-rupture area scaling developed from modelled fault dimensions and measured moment magnitudes. In this study, a measure of a fault plane geometry was provided by rupture area A and the size scaled with moment magnitude Mw. Using global earthquakes datasets containing 90 events with varying magnitudes 4.45 ≤ Mw ≤ 9.20 during years of 1960-2015, we classified the data into separate strike-slip, dip-slip (normal and reverse) and subduction-zone earthquakes. The study aims to search for reliable scaling used for magnitude prediction of earthquakes around the globe for each type of source mechanism. We found from the Mw−A scaling proposed in this study that the magnitude for subduction events was likely to saturate to a maximum value possible Mw ≈ 9.3 at rupture areas much larger than those for strike-slips and dip-slips. This suggests that rocks in the subduction-zone are able to accumulate high stress, implying large seismic energy release via strong ground motion when an earthquake occurs at the plate boundary. Taking into account cases under consideration that included intraplate-fault and subduction processes covering a wide range of magnitudes from moderate to large sizes, the results are relevant to Indonesian tectonic settings, where active crustal faults have been recently found throughout the country and in particular a future megathrust subduction-zone earthquake of Mw ~ 9.0 is possible to occur off the south coasts of Java Island, the most densely populated island in Indonesia. These potential seismic threats call for increasing awareness of disaster preparedness, particularly for local community in regions with a high level of vulnerability to tsunami and earthquake disasters. Therefore, a reliable earthquake early warning is of primary importance, which is best integrated into an existing tsunami early warning for maximum security from future seismic hazards.

Paleoseismic evidence of the 1715 C.E earthquake on the Purgatorio Fault in Southern Peru: Implications for seismic hazard in subduction zones

Active faults in the forearc of southern Peru pose a poorly understood hazard to the region. The Purgatorio Fault is a 60 km-long fault that extends between Moquegua and Tacna that has hosted several scarp-forming earthquakes over the last 6 ka. We present new measurements of the fault scarp geomorphology along the Purgatorio Fault, and use dating of the stratigraphy within a new paleoseismic trench excavated across the fault to establish the chronology of scarp formation. We find that the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake on the Purgatorio Fault occurred sometime between 1630C.E and 1790C.E and had a moment magnitude (Mw) of ~7. We propose that this most recent surface-rupturing earthquake on the Purgatorio Fault was the 1715C.E earthquake recorded in the historical catalogue of the region, which was previously attributed to the megathrust offshore. Our results highlight the importance of establishing a paleoseismic record of onshore faults to differentiate between major megathrust and forearc earthquakes. Given the proximity of these shallow, onshore faults to coastal communities in Peru, the shallow earthquakes they generate may pose a severe, yet often overlooked, seismic hazard.

Earthquake Occurrences of the Major Tectonic Terranes for the Arabian Shield and Their Seismic Hazard Implications

The Arabian Shield, which contains a group of diverse terranes accreted during the Late Proterozoic, has experienced considerable historical and recent earthquake activities. From north to south, the Midyan terrane, Tabuk-Neom area, Hijaz terrane, Jeddah terrane, and Asir terrane make up the western section of the Arabian shield. In order to determine the earthquake occurrences and earthquake recurrence characteristics in the study area, an earthquake dataset containing 2,991 seismic events recorded between 1941 and 2019 with magnitudes of 1.0 and 6.2 and depths between 0 and 50 km was examined. The data were compiled by combining phase readings and information, such as origin times, hypocenter parameters, and magnitudes reported by the International Seismological Centre. The maximum likelihood method has been applied to calculate the Gutenberg–Richter recurrence parameters (a- and b-values) and magnitudes of completeness (Mc). The range of b-values is 0.53–1.04, which indicates that the study region experienced different stress level accumulations that cause earthquakes with different magnitudes. The Hijaz terrane is characterized by a high b-value (1.04 ± 0.34), which indicates a relatively low stress regime that resulted from the earthquakes stress release. The Midyan terrane is characterized by a low b-value (0.53 ± 0.10), which could be indicative of a relatively higher stress regime associated with a dominantly extensional stress. Mc values were found to be 1.4 in Midyan and Jeddah terranes. The lower value of Mc at Midyan terrane demonstrates appropriate station distribution and high earthquake rates. However, at Jeddah terrane, the seismic activities are poorly detected that probably lead to the small value of Mc. Higher Mc are evident in Hijaz terrane (Mc = 2.3) and Tabuk-Neom (Mc = 2.4), where the station distribution is very poor. The maximum expected magnitudes (Mmax) are found to be 6.0 for Midyan terrane, 5.4 for Tabuk-Neom, 4.7 for Hijaz terrane, 4.8 for Jeddah terrane, and 7.7 for Asir terrane. The average recurrence intervals of earthquakes with the Mmax are ∼7, ∼20, ∼6, ∼120, and ∼200 years for each seismic terrain, respectively. The probability of occurrence and returned periods of different magnitudes in each region indicate that regions related to the Najd strike-slip fault system are the regions for large probable earthquake occurrences.

Very Low Frequency Earthquakes in Between the Seismogenic and Tremor Zones in Cascadia?

AbstractMegathrust earthquakes and their associated tsunamis cause some of the worst natural disasters. In addition to earthquakes, a wide range of slip behaviors are present at subduction zones, including slow earthquakes that span multiple orders of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding these events may shed light on the stress or strength conditions of the megathrust fault. Out of all types of slow earthquakes, very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) are most enigmatic because they are difficult to detect reliably, and the physical nature of VLFEs are poorly understood. Here we show three VLFEs in Cascadia that were dynamically triggered by a 2009 Mw 6.9 Canal de Ballenas earthquake in the Gulf of California. The VLFEs likely locate in between the seismogenic zone and the Cascadia episodic tremor and slip (ETS) zone, including one event with a moment magnitude of 5.7. This is the largest VLFE reported to date, causing clear geodetic signals. Our results show that the Cascadia megathrust fault might slip rapidly at some spots in this gap zone, and such a permissible slip behavior has direct seismic hazard implications for coastal communities and perhaps further inland. Further, the observed seismic sources may represent a new class of slip events, whose characteristics do not fit current understandings of slow or regular earthquakes.

A unified perspective of seismicity and fault coupling along the San Andreas Fault.

The San Andreas Fault (SAF) showcases the breadth of possible earthquake sizes and occurrence behavior; in particular, the central SAF is a microcosm of such diversity. This section also exhibits the spectrum of fault coupling from locked to creeping. Here, we show that the observations of aseismic slip, temporal clustering of seismicity, and spatial variations in earthquake size distributions are tightly connected. Specifically, the creep rate along the central SAF is shown to be directly proportional to the fraction of nonclustered earthquakes for the period 1984–2020. This relationship provides a unified perspective of earthquake phenomenology along the SAF, where lower coupling manifests in weaker temporal clustering, with repeating earthquakes as an end-member. This new paradigm provides additional justification for characterizing the northwest ∼75 kilometers of the creeping segment as a transition zone, with potential implications for seismic hazard.